The Problem
Coffee is a treasure to many, but its future is wrought with challenges. International Coffee Day on Oct. 1st brings these concerns to mind. My desire is to share these hurdles in a way that may inform and spark your interest.
Currently, the U.S. tariffs threaten the market and add additional pressure to small farmers. These producers are already facing labor issues due to a lack of interest in the arduous task of collecting crops. Younger generations do not feel committed to a crop that costs more to harvest and sells for less. This is coupled with global climate change and diminishing grow areas. Buckle up because coffee in all forms is going to get expensive.
Climate change is changing the farmland where coffee can grow
Basically, coffee plants grow in very specific high elevation tropical climates. The land suitable for coffee farming could be cut in half by 2050, according to recent studies from the Department of Agricultural Economics, Humboldt Universität zu Berlin (1) The analysis found that "highly productive areas" in the two largest coffee-producing countries in the world, Brazil and Vietnam, most likely will become impossible to grow coffee in the future.
So even with the rising cost we probably won’t be able to grow as much even if we tried.
Professor Jeremy Haggar of agroecology at the University of Greenwich who has spent most of his academic career researching coffee in Central America, says temperature isn't the only concern related to climate change — drought is a big one.
So to keep track of the odds, the economic climate is bad. The actual climate is getting worse and to put a cherry on top, young farmers are switching to other crops.
My perception
With the all of the labor involved, from growing, processing, drying, shipping all around the world and then finally roasting. I’m actually baffled at the low price we currently have. Coffee is a luxury. I just don’t think the average joe is willing to pay the future price.
Coping
There is, however, a new kid on the block. The coffee world has been enamored with recent research into a lesser-known coffee species called stenophylla. It was found in Sierra Leone and can tolerate hotter temperatures than arabica. And notably, it has a familiar taste.
However, Stenophylla production is non-existent and ideal selections of plant varieties will need to be tested, selected and planted. If we started today, we probably still wouldn’t see global yields for another couple decades.
Other little-known coffee varieties, excelsa and liberica, are also gaining interest by the coffee farmers. They're being grown in a handful of countries and seem to be more tenacious in the face of hotter weather.
Let us also not forget about robusta (which would be a great name for a rapper). This OG is gaining traction and seeing more of the total market share. It has origins in sub-Saharan Africa and today Vietnam is the biggest producer. It tends to perform better in warmer climates, and it yields more fruit. This comes at the expense of our taste buds though. In my experience it has a traditional bitter and earthy taste. If you have ever had a cup of instant coffee or Vietnamese coffee. This was most certainly robusta.
Take aways
Coffee has always come at a price. But how much are you willing to pay? I don’t believe my beloved beverage will disappear entirely. My hope is that my morning espresso routine continues on into the twilight of my life. Lets just hope I can afford it.
(1) Bunn, C., Läderach, P., Ovalle Rivera, O. et al. A bitter cup: climate change profile of global production of Arabica and Robusta coffee. Climatic Change 129, 89–101 (2015). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-014-1306-x
